The
performance of Leicester, who has just won the 2015-2016 Premier League title,
is with no doubt one of the greatest and most pleasant surprises in European football
during recent years. But, how great is this achievement? A way to answer this
question is to calculate the efficiency of teams in this league. For that
purpose, we consider the efficiency as the inverse of the probability of
achieving more points than the actual ones using the odds set by betting
houses. The interpretation of this index is quite easy: the closer its value is
to 1 the better the performance and the closer to 0 the worse the performance.
A further explanation of the methodology can be viewed in this paper of the Journal of Sports Economics.
The table
of the efficiency of Premier League teams in the 2015-2016 season is shown
below:
Team
|
Efficiency
|
Points
|
Leicester
|
0.99987
|
81
|
West Ham
|
0.98
|
62
|
Stoke
|
0.81
|
51
|
Tottenham
|
0.80
|
70
|
Southampton
|
0.79
|
63
|
West Brom
|
0.71
|
43
|
Watford
|
0.66
|
45
|
Swansea
|
0.61
|
47
|
Sunderland
|
0.59
|
39
|
Manchester United
|
0.46
|
64
|
Arsenal
|
0.41
|
71
|
Liverpool
|
0.36
|
60
|
Newcastle
|
0.32
|
37
|
Bournemouth
|
0.32
|
43
|
Crystal Palace
|
0.31
|
42
|
Everton
|
0.22
|
47
|
Norwich
|
0.16
|
34
|
Manchester City
|
0.13
|
66
|
Chelsea
|
0.02
|
50
|
Aston Villa
|
0.004
|
17
|
Note:
the odds are calculated as the average of closing
odds in Bwin, Bet365, Interwetten, Ladbrokes and Willliam Hill.
For the
Manchester United – Bournemouth game (still to be played) we have assumed a draw.
We can see
that the efficiency of Leicester is virtually 1. More specifically, the results
show how the probability of having achieved a higher score for Leicester is
1.3/10,000. However, this probability is not completely accurate because the
closing odds show, or should show, all the information prior to a given game.
So, this probability was incorporating all Leicester’s wins throughout the season.
Otherwise, the odds could have been much higher. We could cautiously consider
it to be 10 times more complicated, so the probability of Leicester achieving
at least 81 points would be around 1/100,000.
The
performance of West Ham with an efficiency value of 0.98 is also a highlight in
our results. On contrary, the performance of Aston Villa was simply a disaster
this season, as well as Chelsea’s, coached by Jose Mourinho for a long period
this season.
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